Yesterday was a TWO Green Arrow Day.
Age Is Not A Risk Factor
Good Morning,
Yesterday was a THREE Green Arrow Day, not very many when compared to a week or so ago. Indeed, new cases are up, and when they are, it ripples through the entire table and the corresponding statistics. One of the reasons is really about the testing. Early in COVID’s US history; the US could not test, because of capacity issues, all that needed a test, nevertheless those that wanted one. Our test rates are over 30% higher this week compared to the last week of May. There have been many studies that pointed out the actual infection rates early on were understated. Perhaps not so much anymore.
This week we are going to discuss our three-point strategy not only how to cope with COVID but put in place an approach to deal with a potential second wave and for viral maladies yet to come. Yes, COVID 19 is now, but what about the one next year or the year after that?
The first leg of the strategy is to protect those that are in the high-risk category. In our June 16, 2020 newsletter, we discussed how to force rank five risk categories ranging from low-risk to high, with the highest being 5% of the population. Today we are going to explore that ranking a bit more. We know that, at least in Ohio, 77% of the fatalities are people older than 70 years of age. However, age is a condition we all hope to achieve, but, in this situation, it isn’t one of the prime risk factors. There are plenty of healthy 75-year-old people that are quite healthy, and there are many 40-year-old’s that are not.
What we’d like to see are the fatalities broken down by underlying conditions. What we can see in a general sense is that those in the highest risk category have multiple conditions that include obesity, diabetes, high blood pressure, or very immune-compromised health, those on chemotherapy, for example. Age, per se, is not one of those risk factors. That said, as we get older, we tend to accumulate some of the risk factors. In other words, age doesn’t cause obesity, for instance, but there are more obese people in the later age brackets. Our point is that focusing on the real risk factors rather than the ones with correlation is more effective than general guidelines. Why because those and only those are the ones that risk mortality. Relatively healthy people do not die from the virus, at least that’s what the numbers show.
What should policymakers and the healthcare profession tell and teach us? Get healthier, lose weight, stop self-destructive habits because improving your immune system will save your life, especially in the age of COVID.
Ohio COVID Fatalities by Age
Ohio Department of Health
References are provided on our website. While you are there please register if you haven’t already.