Yesterday was a THREE Green Arrow Day.
Weekly Summary for Week Ended June 28, 2020
Good Morning,
The other day we were listening to an interview with Nebraska’s governor and how well the state was doing in coping with COVID. Specifically, the reporter mentioned how few deaths they have had. We double-checked, and it was a partial truth, Nebraska does have a low number of fatalities, but on a relative basis, they would rank 21st, just ahead of Florida and well behind Texas which has the 10th most moderate deaths/million.
Our point; numbers should only be reported based on their relative context, which would include using the appropriate denominators. Earlier this year, tests were scarce, and only the very sick received them. Since that time, the US has significantly expanded its capacity and capability to perform tests. In June, so far, there have been 4 million more tests than in May and will end up being closer to 5 million more by the end of this month.
More tests will yield more cases and keep in mind that for many, they are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. In the early days, they were not tested nor counted. Recently the CDC has examined donated blood and now estimates that as many as ten times more people may have had the virus. It seems pretty clear to us that more of the mild and asymptomatic cases are now being counted, which actually may give us a more accurate denominator.
The plummeting death rates, even with the higher testing, would make this evident. Part of the credit should go to our healthcare system being better adept and treating patients, for sure. However, if this trend continues and the highest risk patents take appropriate precautions, we can look at COVID in the rearview mirror.
New Case Rate:
Much of the increase in new cases is directly related to more tests and counting those with asymptomatic or mild symptoms.
Death Rates:
The number of fatalities and the death rate continually have dropped. It is conceivable that the continuation of this trend could change the perception of COVID going forward.
Test Rates:
Our country has increased its capacity and capability to test potential cases. This has the effect of including examples, in prior periods, that would not have been tested nor counted.
