Yesterday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day.

“Open Net Cases (ONC)” or Virus Carriers

Good Morning,

Yesterday was an FIVE Green Arrow Day. Below are the particulars for the day.

The most often asked question we receive is, “why doesn’t the media (policymakers) track or report ONC?” The short answer is we don’t know. It would be logical to focus energy and resources on known virus carriers rather than broad-based restrictions or guidelines. Yes, we understand that there should be precautions because someone may be a carrier and be asymptomatic. But the fact is each state knows exactly the individuals that have had a positive test.

An excellent example of how to center attention on a specific case is how Major League Baseball, especially the Cleveland Indians, has dealt with known situations or two without closing down baseball. Those involved were immediately sequestered, and every effort was made to keep them quarantined until the coast was clear. Perhaps policymakers could learn a bit from America’s pastime.

We calculated ONC based on the following formula (see graphs below):

1. Accumulated cases to date
2. Less: fatalities
3. Less: those requiring intensive care (if known)
4. Less: the accumulated cases for 16, 14, 12, and 10 days prior
5. Equals: Open Net Cases or virus carriers

We assume as many health care organizations do that the virus lasts about 14 days without complications. Generally, people begin to feel symptoms a couple of days after being infected and seek a test. The tests can take three days or more to be processed. Thus, our range of 16 to 10 days.

Florida

Florida with a population of 21.5 million may have as little as 46,000 ONC’s or 0.2%.

Information from Worldometer.