Labor Day was a TEN Green Arrow Day.

“Open Net Cases (ONC)” or Virus Carriers

Good Morning,

Labor Day was a TEN Green Arrow day; below are the particulars for the day.

New cases in both states have dropped significantly to the point that Florida and Ohio have very few “Open Net Cases” or virus carriers, 0.063%, and 0.014%. The graphs below show how each state has gained on slowing their infection rates.

We use the term ONC to quantify how many people are capable of transmitting COVID 19 to others. Historic accumulated numbers may get more attention, but it is far more noteworthy to know how many people in your location have the virus.

Yesterday, we showed that there was almost a 40% drop in new cases on a national level from the week ending July 19 to September 5, 2020. These two individual states statistics support our supposition that the second wave has dissipated.

There may be as few as 1,600 ONC’s in Ohio, and there are healthcare records that accurately identify these patients. One astute reader asked, “why don’t we just quarantine them, instead of placing across the board restrictions on all of us?” Not sure we have an answer to that question.

We calculated ONC based on the following formula (see graphs below):

1. Accumulated cases to date
2. Less: fatalities
3. Less: those requiring intensive care (if known)
4. Less: the accumulated cases for 16, 14, 12, and 10 days prior
5. Equals: Open Net Cases or virus carriers

We assume as many health care organizations do that the virus lasts about 14 days without complications. Generally, people begin to feel symptoms a couple of days after being infected and seek a test. The tests can take three days or more to be processed. Thus, our range of 16 to 10 days.

Florida

Florida with a population of 21.5 million may have as little as 13,000 ONC’s or 0.014%.

Information from Worldometer.