Yesterday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day.

Favorable Trends Continue

Yesterday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day. Below are the particulars for the day. 

We often read or watch the daily headlines and wonder about their perspective. For example, one astute reader pointed out that a news source said new cases increased by 17% last week, which is a fact. However, it does not have context, and at best, is misleading.

Before last week we showed seven consecutive weeks of fewer new cases. Furthermore, we know, as we have reported, that new cases are not in real-time because of the testing, tabulating, and reporting lags. Generally, what we see in the news is five to seven days old. The week just before the reported increase was a holiday week, and thus there were fewer days to process the accumulated tests. In short, that increase was based on an incomplete or shortened work week and not indicative of the last two months’ favorable trend which shows a 40% reduction since mid-July.

We reached a high of more than 2,000 deaths per day during mid-April. The number dropped to about 1,000 per day in August, and for September, it is averaging nearly 800. 

The fatalities rate was as high as 6.1% in May and has now fallen less than 3.0%, based on the US having recorded 7.1 million cases of COVID 19. Notice the term “recorded cases.” We still don’t know the actual number of cases; many of those who contracted the virus went unreported because they were asymptomatic. The CDC has reported that more people may have been infected as many as ten times more than reported. 

New Case Rate