Yesterday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day.
Good Morning,
In general the pronounced trends continue to move favorably with some daily fluctuations.
The new case rate has been at 2.1% or less for the past three days.
Greater NYC’s growth rate slowed to below 1.0% for the first time.
We added another category, our tenth, to measure, “Open Net Cases (ONC).” In many tables, maps and, tally websites, data is presented only on an accumulated basis, such as being tested positive with COVID 19. New information is stacked on the previous days on a continuum.
That is important to know, however, what might be more relevant are what we label ONC’s. (Open Net Cases). We calculate ONC by starting with accumulated cases, subtract deaths/hospital stays, and those cases that are at least two weeks old. We calculate ONC because most recoveries are self-diagnosed and go unreported; there isn’t a process or system to collect it.
We know the US has about 1.3 million total cases but, how many have recovered. As of yesterday, we show our ONC calculation to be 455,000 or 36% of the historic count. In other words, we also have over 800,000 resolved or recovered patients with with COVID 19 antibodies. We’re tracking this because it is an insightful leading indicator of progress, both nationally and in specific regions.
Knowing how many patients still have the virus and where they live, work, etc. will sharpen decision making. There are two maps below, one, on the left, shows Ohio’s accumulated cases and uses shades of blue to indicate severity. Of course, this version will keep turning darker shades because of the accumulation effect. The second map is for illustrative purposes; it has adds five ovals, four a lighter blue (less severe) and one much deeper. As you can see, because of recoveries in those four ovals, or regions, there are fewer patients, less relative hot spots compared to the first map. perhaps more importantly we can see an area that needs greater attention. In Ohio the total cases are 21,000, we calculate 6,000 that still need care or ONC’s because there are 15,000 recoveries or resolved cases.
Knowing how many and where, those still in need of care, will enable us to efficiently deploy resources and effectively apply restrictions.
See the attached spreadsheet tab: ONC.
Please excuse my graphic art work, I’m still at the graphic work stage.
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