Sunday was a FOUR Green Arrow Day.

What’s the Real Number?

Good Morning,

Sunday was a FOUR Green Arrow Day. Below are the particulars for the day.

The news is undoubtedly anxious to report how many “new cases” of COVID 19 happened the day before. But as avid readers of this newsletter know, the reported number is not reflective of real-time information. Instead, it is the result principally of a five-day workweek productivity measure. Fridays show the highest number of cases as the lab workers finish their weeks’ worth of work. The weekend number of patients falls, and Monday, as workers return, the processing rate picks up, and we have a “spike” in new cases.

We also know that in the early days’ tests were rationed, and only the very sick received a test. The CDC had reported that there might have been ten times more patients than reported by their statistics. Their study was based on sampling blood donations for the applicable antibodies. Assuming the CDC’s study was representative, then in May, we may have seen daily “reported cases” north of 250,000 per day. In other words, if we are now capable of testing anyone even though their symptoms are mild or non-existent, we may now indeed have a picture of the virus.

Yesterday it was reported in the USA; there had been more than 170 million tests performed or about 53% of the population. Of course, more than half the country has not had a test, but that shows another bias in the data. Repeat tests and repeat positive results. Each time a person tests negatively, it counts as a new case. The CDC’s guidelines require two negative tests at least 24 hours apart to be considered cleared to go into public situations.

So, what’s the right number? We aren’t sure anyone knows, but we see the abundance of testing, and multiple repeat tests make comparisons of previous months’ activity problematic.

Tests