Yesterday was a THREE Green Arrow day.
Good Morning,
It was also the last day of April, a month that seemed surrealistic.
To review below are some of the statistics, March 31st compared to April 30th
1) US new case rate dropped from 15.1% to 2.9% – last five days below 3.0%.
2) Greater NYC new case rate decreased from 13.7% to 1.8 % last four days below 2.0%.
3) There were almost 60,000 deaths in the US in April.
4) Reported recoveries increased from 7,251 to 152,324.
5) Theoretical recoveries reached the 55% level (see attached table).
Looking back at the end of March there were all kinds of models predicting what could happen. What we can’t seem to find was any thoughts of what we would consider progress for the month. Would a drop in new case rates to less than 3% and 2% respectively mean the curve was flattened and that would be viewed as definitive progress?
Our view is that setting objectives which are brief, specific and measurable, might help the public know what kind of progress we are making. Objectives will let us know whether the steps we are taking are working and if our healthcare system is figuring out how best to treat COVID 19. We know there is not an instant fix to all of this, but would we consider May results to be progress if:
1) The new case rate dropped to less than 1%.
2) Less than 30,000 deaths.
3) More than 80% of the patients were recovered.
We’ve modified our tables to be a bit easier to read and added tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet to access more detail and some of our assumptions.
Next week we are going to use our data to look for patterns to, identify what are/where the higher risk factors for new case growth. Ideally using data, we might help policy makers tune their responses to better address COVID 19.
Enjoy your day.