Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day.

Herd Immunity Around the Corner?

Good Morning,

Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

A few weeks ago, we mentioned that herd immunity could happen as soon as May of this year. We based our supposition on the growing number of vaccinated plus the cumulative number of those that have recovered from the virus. We coined the term “Herd Immunity Factor,” as defined below.

Vaccinations + cases (reported & projected) = Herd Immunity Factor (HIF)

Below is a chart that shows the three components of our HIF; vaccinations in dark green, theoretical recovers, and recoded recoveries. Through the end of February, there were 75.2 million vaccinations were administered. We used half that figure because, in most cases, the vaccine requires two doses. Thus, using half would seem reasonable. The light green area shows the recorded recoveries, but as we have noted in previous newsletters, that highly understates actual recoveries. The yellow portion displays the theoretical recoveries, which are those patients that had the virus and lived and did not get a confirmation test. Most recoveries happen without being officially recorded.

These three components together equal our term HIF. As of the end of February, we have about 42% of our population as safe. Shortly we will be at a better than 50% (mid-March). Does having more than half of our country safe mean we are closing in Herd Immunity? As vaccinations continue to increase and current cases recover, the end of April doesn’t sound unreasonable.

This was the supposition of Dr. Marty Makary at Johns Hopkins recently announced.