Yesterday was a SEVEN Green Arrow day.
Good Morning:
Nine green arrows, then two, then seven. A reader asked why such a difference?
There are several reasons for that, the most obvious we are following the impact of a virus and as Dr. Fauci has mentioned, people don’t set a timetable the virus does.
The “veracity” of these statistics is dependent on so many factors.
1) There is a lag between when an event happens then appears in our tables (i.e. a test is sent to a lab, the lab records the event, then it is reported). It can take days before the results of a test are known and then recorded.
2) The practical aspects of collecting and reporting data. Think of the tens of thousands of healthcare facilities gathering information then reporting it to the proper authorities. Some do this quite well, others not so much. The entire data collection / reporting processes and cycles are new.
3) Definitions of the categories are malleable and somewhat in flux. An example of that was NYC retroactively recategorizing causes of deaths to “probably” COVID 19.
4) Some data is not or can’t be reported. When we see new cases, that really means, cases that we know of, because many cases were or are never reported.
5) Testing without question is better and more prevalent. That means the statistics today are a bit more solid than just a couple of weeks ago.
What all this goes to say it that small daily changes may be more about the “veracity” of the statistics then the general trend of that category.
Rest assured, the general trends show an improvement, the infection rates are lower, or as many say the curve has “flattened.” The one category deaths, is a bit different because the initial event, getting tested positive, and then the final outcome, may take months to materialize.
Enjoy your day.