April 27, 2020

Yesterday was a SIX Arrow day.

Good morning:

Before we go into any analysis, again, we may have the Sunday effect. In short it seems our healthcare system takes a bit of a break and only focuses on the most acute patients on Sunday.

The highlights, though, was the lowest new case rate 2.8% ever recorded and even NYC’s rate dropped to 2.1%.

Of course, there were fewer tests, 191,227 compared to the 300,000-test average for the prior three days. However, yesterday’s test number was significantly higher that any day prior to last Thursday.

That means the very low and encouraging sub 3% growth rates in both our hottest hotspot NCY and in the entire country is good news.

Likewise, fatalities in the US dropped to 1,157 and to 343 in greater NYC. The US number is the lowest it’s been since April 3rd.

This week we will watch how states begin to lift restrictions. With many using next Monday as their start dates.

Our data shows that there absolutely is a regional component and thus restrictions or lifting them ought to follow what the regional rates seem to dictate.

Obviously what restrictions should be lifted in Montana which has the lowest rate of 42 per 100,000 residents would be different than greater NYC with a rate of 1,369 per 100,000.

We would urge science and healthcare professionals to look more closely at what are those surfaces that are most likely to be contaminated and figure out ways to either avoid them or sanitize them before human contact.

According to many, continual contact (15 to 20 minutes) of a contaminated surface and then touching one’s eyes, nose or mouth, is best way for the virus to be passed.

For sure as state lift restrictions and set new guidelines there will be all kinds of second guessing.

Just remember COVID 19 does not cause deaths immediately, nor do the symptoms. In other words, the impact from “opening up,” the country will be hard to measure in real-time.

Have a wonderful day.

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