Yesterday was a FOUR Green Arrow Day.
Good morning
What stands out from the table is the strong increase in testing. For the week ending 4/25/20 there were over 1,557,092 compared to the week ending 4/18/20 with 1,051,471 a 48% increase.
More testing means more active cases, yes, but the incremental testing of 500,000 only yielded 10,811 new cases a 2.1% infection rate. That’s good news, the lower the new case rate the better.
Things we learned last week:
1) The infection rate for the week ending 4/25 was 3.6% compared to the week before of 4.5% a 25% decrease in the number of new cases.
2) Testing has increased quite a bit, almost 1 million tests were performed that last three days of the week compared with almost that much the entire week before.
3) The states with the highest percentage of cases to-date are: NY 1.5% / NJ 1.2% / Ct 0.7% (we refer to as greater NYC) and MA at 0.8%, collectively the NYC / Boston corridor.
4) COVID 19 has impacted that region significantly more than the rest of our country, the US overall rate is less than 0.3%. Without that region the US would only be at 0.15%. That means for every 1,000 individuals only one-and-half would have COVID 19.
5) Recovery statistics are continually on a rollercoaster, up one day, down the next, etc. However, are calculated “Theoretical Recovers” are approaching 50%
What we can expect next week:
A continual increase in testing as medical professional and politicians push for more. This is good, because as the incremental testing showed only a 2% infection rate. This means that 98 people out of 100 were not infected…and are not carriers.
Theoretical recoveries will surpass 50%, and perhaps approach 60%. We certainly would like to see the public commentary talk about net cases (total cases less those that are either recovered or have passed).
New cases rates will fall to below 3% one day next week.
As May 1st approaches there are going to be several states that are starting to lift restrictions. We will see what happens the speculations are already in place. For sure the opinions and “told you so’s,” will increase exponentially.
Enjoy your day.