Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day.

Covid in the Rear-View Mirror

Good Morning,

Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

In the USA, we have now administered over 318 million doses as of June 20, 2021. Of which 150 million have completed their entire regimen. The vaccine distribution continues to expand (more outlets), and all restrictions of access, such as age, have been lifted. About 45% of our citizens have completed their respective dose regimens.

There are 27.4 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their regimen. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 53%. However, as new cases fall, the conundrum is that people might lose their desire to get one for themselves.

The combination of the 150 million, plus the recorded (19 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (74 million) recovers make our Herd Immunity Factor (HIF) 243 million or 73% of our population. Said a bit different, less than 90 million citizens don’t have either vaccination or self-created immunity (those that had the virus), and only 96,000 currently are virus carriers.

The CDC has stated that the 70% to 80% threshold is needed for Herd Immunity to take full effect. We are now at the 73% HIF level; a similar mark previously reached in Israel when their new case rates plummeted. Again, we see that pattern directly in the USA.

The chart below shows an 84% drop in new cases since the week of April 18th. We expect this favorable trend to continue.

Over the next, several weeks will summarize our views and recommendations. In addition, we will offer insights into how Covid 19 was handled, what was handled well and what we could have done better.