Sunday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day.

Covid 19: The Next Few Weeks?

Good Morning,

We have now administered over 341 million doses as of July 25, 2021, 4 million more from the previous week. Of which 163 million have completed their entire regimen, an increase of 1.8 million compared to the prior week. The vaccine distribution continues to expand (more outlets), and all restrictions of access, such as age, have been lifted. About 49% of our citizens have completed their respective dose regimens. We are trending to a 1% uptick per week of those fully vaccinated.

There are 25 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their regimen. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 57%. The combination of the 163 million, plus the recorded (18 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (37.6 million less duplicates) recovers make our Herd Immunity Factor (HIF) 218 million or 66% of our population.

We revisited our unrecorded case number (74 million) and reduced it by the percentage of people who received the vaccination to avoid double counting. Historically we did not reduce this category because the unreported new cases offset those that received their regimen. We now believe this approach better approximates the HIF.

The trend for new cases has surged over the past three weeks. Notice in the graph below (green arrow) that the case rate dropped by more than 80%, which coincides with a jump in vaccinations. In the next several weeks (orange arrow), the new case and vaccination rates flattened. In the last several weeks (red arrow), we see the surge of new cases and a significant slowdown of newly vaccinated.

One factor that seems to evade our research is the reliability of the reported new case data. First, we know that each time a person is tested positive, that’s a new case even when that person is tested several days in a row to determine when the virus has run its course. Secondly, there was a recent FDA recall of a specific test that relies on measuring antigens. Antigen tests in general (testing for Covid 19 antibodies) are simple to administer yet have shown to be less than reliable. At times, this type of test leads to either a false positive or negative.