At the end of August, there were over 1 million new cases per week. Last week the number fell to almost 600,000. We’ve had six weeks of a favorable trend. We expect this was caused by getting closer to the magic Herd Immunity Factor, which is the combination of vaccinated individuals and those who naturally acquired immunity.

We have now administered over 396 million doses as of last week. Of which 185.5 million have completed their entire regimen, an increase of 1.8 million compared to the prior week. About 56% of our citizens have completed their respective dose regimens.

There are 30 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their requirement. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 65%. The combination of the 185 million-plus the recorded (18.9 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (41.0 million less the double-counting) recoveries make our Herd Immunity Factor (HIF) 245 million or 74% of our population. Our view is that once we cross the 80% threshold of those with natural and vaccinated immunity, we will see the long-awaited light at the end of the tunnel.

The trend for new cases has been moving in a favorable direction over the past weeks. Notice in the graph below and the second green arrow. Since mid-August, we’ve had six weeks in a row with fewer cases. The holiday week was a bit lower, but probably due to the typical lag in reporting.