Good Morning:
Yesterday, Saturday April 18, 2020 was a SIX Green Arrow Day, the best ranking since we began reporting. Most encouraging is the new case rate dropped to 4.1%.
It has been 30 days since we began posting and here are some of the highlights.
The new case rate has fallen from 40.4% to 4.1%
Almost 40% (36.8%) have recovered, based on our “theoretical recovery” formula (two-week age cases – deaths – extended care = theoretical recoveries).
Over 3.7 million tests have been administered and the daily testing rates continue to improve.
Our biggest hot spot (greater NYC) has an infection rate of 1.1% (1,126 / 100,000) meaning almost 99% do not have the virus.
Only three area, greater NYC, Massachusetts and Louisiana have a rate of a half % or higher.
Several readers have suggested we attempt to forecast what to expect in future days or weeks, but I am reminded what Dr. Fauci once said, the virus will determine the timetable.
That said, we should see a continued improvement of the trends and would very much like to see better reporting of recoveries. It is hard to foresee what will happen to the death rates because in general they are cases at least a couple / three weeks old and science and medicine continue to make advances.
We have 12 more days till May 1st the day some of our country / regions will begin to “open up.” There are of course risks but there are also risks continuing the draconian quarantine approach of hibernating in one’s home.
Unfortunately, we will have many that will have a feast day second guessing every decision and many will be able to retroactively say “see…I told you so.”
Have a wonderful day.