Sunday was a SIX Green Arrow Day.

Which Cases Are Up?

Good Morning,

Last week there was a steep increase in new cases. A portion of that increase was the timing lag between a patient testing positive and the eventual processing of that data since the week before was a Thanksgiving weekend. The question we continue to have been, what cases are up? Is it Covid 19, Covid the variant or Covid Omicron? What is the percentage of double counting as more and more organizations are actively testing their employees? Generally, a person that tests positive cannot get back into action until they achieve two negative tests 24 hours apart. That often leads to daily tests until there is a favorable outcome. That means that each positive test, even on the same person, is counted as a “new case.”

Thus far, 197 million Americans have received their complete regimen of vaccinations, or 59%, with another 38 million in the queue to finish their requirement. Over the past several weeks, we averaged about 1.2 million added to the fully vaccinated category; last week, was 2.8 million completed their vaccinations.

Slowly we are approaching the Herd Immunity Factor (HIF), the combination of those that have acquired natural immunity or through vaccination. Currently, we are about at the 78th percentile of HIF. The 195 million vaccinated plus those that had the virus and recovered and those “officially recovered” 19 million, plus those counted as a new case but yet to be classified as closed, 44 million is the HIF. That equates to 78% of our population. We believe the HIF is at least 80%. That means we will probably not see another drop in case levels until HIF is reached.