Good Morning:
Yesterday Thursday April 16, 2020 we had a FOUR Green Arrow day, and in general trends keep showing progress.
The one category that continues to puzzle us is recoveries. We’ve added a couple of lines in our “Theoretical Recoveries” that now total almost 200,000.
This is obviously important because they are not carriers…anymore. Also, we continue to see the number of cases in almost any chart, but we would argue that it is more valuable to know the net cases (cases less recoveries) because that’s the number of potential carriers.
Through yesterday the US had 677,570 cases, if one deducts the 196,891 recoveries our net cases would be 480,679. That’s the number we believe is significant to “re-opening” the economy. Simply put the lower the net cases are the more likely we can contain any further spread.
Many believe that when we open up the economy, COVID 19 new case rate will increase faster. Conversely keeping the harsh in-home quarantine is the only answer to stop spreading the disease. We don’t think it must be binary.
We know more, understand COVID-19 better and we have lots of smart people and something called artificial intelligence to help us make the best decisions.
A few postings ago we highlighted the US’s hot spot the NYC through Boston corridor as having the highest rates and number of cases. In addition, we brought up the point that this area relies heavily on public transportation. Trains, busses and subways have the perfect storm conditions for spreading COVID-19, they are crowded (no social distancing of six feet) and have potentially contaminated surfaces in which people are in contact for at least 15 to 20 minutes.
Yesterday we noticed a story in the New York Post in which a MIT study supports our hypothesis.
Our hope is that policy makers look to find the more specific and likely ways in which the virus spreads and take precautionary measures to eliminate those precise sources. We also can combine a targeted approach to potential contamination surfaces with adjusted social distancing guidelines.
One of the highest risk categories for people are those over 65 years of age with diabetes. There are less than 60 million Americans over 65 and its estimated that 21% have diabetes. Perhaps strict social distancing guidelines should be used for those 13 million or so citizens. Of course, the greater preponderance of that group is retired and aren’t in the workforce.
The combination of more precise and better surface contact practices (we already wipe down grocery carts, for example) and tuned social distancing guidelines can yield a safer environment even if we open up the economy.
MIT study: Subways a ‘major disseminator’ of coronavirus in NYC (New York Post)
Have a wonderful day.