Good Morning:
Yesterday Thursday April 9, 2020 was a FOUR green arrow day and another strong indication that the curve has flattened.
The growth rate of new cases dropped to 7.7% and the prime “hot spot” greater NYC rate fell below 7.5%. The number of deaths had been second consecutive day of less than the day before. There are many opinions, editorials and government officials regarding deaths. Some insightful others hurtful. For now, at least we will just report on the numbers.
The test statistics are difficult to interpret at least as of now since it still takes at least 24 hours and sometimes quite longer for the test results to manifest in a positive or negative result. That combined with many potential cases people are not directed to take a test but rather self-quarantine.
Although both recovery measures have green arrows, we still believe recoveries are understated. Our theoretical recovers (total cases two weeks ago; less deaths and those in critical care) is over 60,000, more than twice the reported number.
Other countries, Spain, Italy, Germany, etc. show a much higher recovery rate than the US. Most of the difference we believe, is based on the definition of recovery and the various latency in recording and reporting data.
We will keep a keen eye on when the US recoveries cross the 100,000 mark and recoveries exceed open cases. That may be the best “green light” indicator that it is safe to return to a somewhat normal life.
Have a wonderful day.