Good Morning:
Yesterday Friday April 10, 2020 was a ONE green arrow day. However, the most important factor, the new cases rate fell to 7.2%. Less than half the rate a week ago.
New cases only increased by 216 and deaths by 135, both are showing a significant slowdown in their pace.
The one number that we truly believe is quite understated is the recoveries. As of yesterday, there were only about 27,000 reported. Yet our theoretical recoveries calculate to be about 75,000 (cases 14 + days ago – deaths – prolonged care = theoretical recoveries).
The unaccounted-for recoveries are important for many reasons, first these people have survived, have anti-bodies and are not carriers. Below is a graph from WHO, and if correct, all of the numbers we see are only 20% of the cases. That means there are multiple times more recoveries, non-carriers than various models contemplate.
As the Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Tedros Adhanom, explained in his February 28 briefing, “Most people will have mild disease and get better without needing any special care.” Several studies have found that about 80% of all the COVID-19 cases have relatively minor symptoms which end without severe illness and therefore remain unreported.
A couple of thoughts about social distancing. First the data shows it is working. However, it actually may be more effective to have a more targeted approach. According to many, the virus mostly is transmitted through contact with a contaminated surface for 15 – 20 minutes and then the individual touch their face (eyes, nose or mouth). If that is so, a more targeted approach to curbing the spread may be eliminating that specific risk factor, potentially contaminated surfaces that normally we are in contact with for that much time. What are those surfaces in which that can happen? Can we limit or restrict them? Maybe “social distancing” can be enhanced / replaced with “surface restriction” regulations / guidelines.
For a simple example Tennis is almost banned everywhere in the US, because of potential of the balls being contaminated. Suppose we changed the approach rather than ban tennis; we have player A use white balls and player B use yellow balls. Payer A would know not to touch the yellow balls and player B the white. People can now play tennis and the risk is eliminated.
Have a wonderful holiday.