Good Morning:
Yesterday Sunday April 19, 2020 was a FIVE Green Arrow Day.
The one category not registering a green arrow was recoveries, which we have discussed several times how that number is quite understated.
If you notice below the main tables, there is a green box that shows “Theoretical Recovers.” These are calculated at the number of cases two weeks prior, less resolved cases (i.e. deaths, extended care and recorded recoveries).
Theoretical recoveries are now over 40%. Remember one key target for being on the other side of this situation is when the US has more than 50% recovered.
There are a couple of studies (Boston & Stanford) that have shown in these two samples that COVID 19 may actually have been more wide-spread than anyone knew…by a lot. And, that is actually good news because we also have quite a few more people that are recovered and have the anti-bodies.
Not only are they recovered they are part of the group that had mild or no symptoms at all.
There are a couple of questions that come to mind:
1) Would it make sense for the CDC (or whatever government agency) to perform some random sampling tests?
2) Do people that have received a flu shot this season have any better or worse outcome if they contract the virus?
A random test, using similar sampling formulas as political polls, might give us an indication of how many Americans may actually have or have had the disease.
Again, if the two aforementioned studies are even partially demonstrative, then the denominator is significantly higher and all of the percentages on the tables are much lower.
The second question about flu shots was asked by a fellow reader. At first blush it might be easy to dismiss…but the more we see about COVID-19 the more we discover new facets. There might be certain, not necessarily logic correlations, the might shed more light onto this situation.
Have a wonderful day