Good Morning:
Yesterday Tuesday April 21, 2020 was a SIX Green Arrow Day out of a possible seven. We use our “green arrow” grading system to give readers a snapshot view of how all the numbers tallied for the previous day.
A bit of a turnaround from Sunday’s results. We’ve mention in the past that there might be a Sunday effect in which events on Sunday may not be processed till Monday…maybe that’s why we didn’t have too many green arrows on Sunday. Or has Dr. Anthony Fauci has said the virus set’s the timetable, not people.
As you can see from the attached table, the trends are headed in the right direction. The new case rate was 3.3%, down from over 30% a month ago. Even our country’s biggest hot spot, the NYC / Boston corridor’s growth has slowed to less than that of the US overall.
There is a correction on Monday’s newsletter, the definition of self-determined recoveries:
This is the correction:
At least 3 days (72 hours) have passed since recovery defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and improvement in respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, shortness of breath); and, At least 7 days have passed since symptoms first appeared”
We are grateful that we got better information. Sometimes we use a source that might be dated and to have this kind of real-time scrutiny is more than refreshing. Thank you, reader, you have made a difference.
Another reader pointed out that our cumulative death rates in the NYC corridor might not be right…and I agree. NYC has made a couple of retroactive adjustments both up and down. The reader was correct in recognizing the discrepancy. We are using CNN’s cumulative total ‘s for the day, this report has the current history-to-date right. Thank you, reader.
The objective of this daily newsletter, perhaps for lack of a better term, is to communicate what’s going on in an unvarnished fashion. Please let us know your thoughts, we want to be better.
A key milestone was almost achieved yesterday. The milestone is that at least 50% of the cases reported cases are recovered. For many reasons it might not be possible to have a verified number of recoveries. What we have done is calculate “Theoretical Recoveries” (see table). These are cases that are at least fourteen days old and that they haven’t been classified otherwise (i.e. deaths, extended care). As of yesterday, in the USA, 48.5 % of the cases are theoretical recoveries.
We’ve started to see some articles about different demographics groups have higher incidents of COVID 19. What we have also seen is that there are certain environments, such as public transportation that are, unfortunately very fertile incubators for the virus. Our guess, and we’d bet a chocolate Sunday or two, that the demographics of those that use public transportation will have a very similar demographic of those that have the virus, especially in the NYC / Boston corridor.
We are gaining visitors to our newsletter…BUT…if this isn’t right for you and you’d like it to stop coming to you, simply reply to me, and we will take you off the distribution.
We are also attaching another document that helps defined some of the terms we use, our targets and how we are measuring them.
Have a wonderful day