Good Morning:
Yesterday Thursday April 23, 2020 was a SIX Green Arrow Day.
We’ve added our ninth category, so we had 6 green arrows, 2 red and on no change, noted with a yellow hyphen.
The new category is the percentage of tests new cases against test performed. We been tracking these statistics but were reluctant to grade the category because the results of the test usually don’t show up until a day or so thereafter. We think that we’ve had enough days that the lag may now be shorter or muted with the number of tests and day…we will see.
The statistic that was a bit of surprise to us is that over 80% if the deaths recorded yesterday were from the greater NYC hot spot. The more we see the data, the more we notice that COVID 19 has a strong regional aspect. To date 50% of the cases and 57% of the deaths are in the NYC / Boston corridor.
We have had five consecutive days of sub 4% growth, and that is really important.
As we have stated numerous of times the reported recoveries look to be significantly under reported. Our theoretical recoveries show that 45% of all cases have recovered from COVID 19. When you see the data from the various media sources just remember those are all cases but remember about half of them are recovered and are no longer carriers.
Form a policy standpoint we believe there are one vital number that should be sought; the real actual recoveries. This would include estimating, somehow (random samples), of all cases, even those that had the virus with little or no symptoms. That of course is what we’ve come to call the DENOMINATOR.
Even without the actual denominator the US hottest hot spot greater NYC has only 1.3% of its population with or recovered from the virus.
Enjoy your day!