Good Morning:
Yesterday Friday April 24, 2020 was a SIX Green Arrow Day.
Very encouraging is that greater NYC, our hottest hot spot, had less than 500 new cases and just over 500 deaths yesterday. The NCY / Boston corridor accounts for just under 50% and 60% of the cases and deaths nationally. To see this region’s new case growth rate plunge is important. Generally, experts are looking at the rates as a proxy for the rest of the country.
The new case growth rate increased a bit but notice the last couple of days the tests performed were more than double the previous several days. And yes, the more tests that are made we find more ‘new’ cases will emerge. However, those tests are showing a lower rate of infection than in prior days. Keep in mind that it is still only those that “feel” sick that are getting tested which of course means the results will yield a much higher percentage than if we tested everyone.
One reader asked, “why do the results look like a roller coaster, up, down, up, down?”
There are some logical reasons for this. First when one looks at the chart it is easy to assume that it is real-time information. They are not. The sequence of an event, recording and reporting are not precise. For example, a patient receives a test, it gets sent to a lab and then there is a lag of at least a day before the results are known. Sometime after that those results are reported to the various sources. Yesterday we had an increase of new cases and that most likely were those that were tested on Thursday, the highest test performing day, to date. In other words, there is an information processing lag that adds to the eb and flow of the postings. To further this thought, many are reporting information in batches, rather than as events happens. We can see this because at different times during the day there will be a spike in reported data as each hospital system completes a shift. With our four time zones we see it roll as we move from zone to zone.
The definitions are fluid as our healthcare system learns more and tries to add precision to the measurements. We’ve seen in NYC a retroactive reclassification and addition of deaths due to COVID 19 while in Pennsylvania there is a thought that as many as 200 were inappropriately classified as COVID 19.
We believe there is an advantage in reviewing data in our table format because one can see the general trends and their direction, rather than at any specific point in time.
From a simple perspective a month ago the new case growth rate was between 25% to 30%, two weeks ago mid-teens, and recently about a third of that growth rate. We are getting very close to having half of all being considered recovered, at least in our theoretical calculation.
Enjoy your day, things are getting better.