Good Morning:
Yesterday Sunday April 5, 2020 was FIVE green arrow day (out of a possible 6) improving tends.
There were fewer new cases (first time), the rate of infection dropped below 10% (the first time ever), deaths were lower, and the rate of recoveries improved. In all a pretty good day.
There were less tests and the rate of those tested was higher. These numbers (test in a given day vs. infections that same day) aren’t in sync because it probably still takes at least 24 hours to process the results of a test.
Yesterday was Sunday and there were some numbers that appeared low, like number of tests, compared to the day before. Perhaps there was a “Sunday effect” in which our overworked healthcare professionals deferred some non-urgent things until Monday.
Recoveries: Another insightful reader asked why recoveries seem to lag more than 14 days from first recorded. That’s a very good question. My guess is that the information gathering systems we are using aren’t quite tuned to prompt and accurate reporting. There may not be a standard follow-up process in which to record recovers. For example, if Mr. Jones was diagnosed 15 days ago. Does anyone call him back and ask how he is doing? Is he tested to validate he is okay, or most likely he stays on the books as an active case, perhaps with no verifiable process to move him to the recovery category?
Nonetheless: We are expecting a significant spike in recoveries later this week both in number and the rate.
Country vs. Regional: There are only four states that have a new case rate higher than 10 cases / 100,000 (or 0.01%); New York, New Jersey, Michigan & Louisiana. Although the data source has these number by state, it is almost certain that it’s the greater metro areas of NYC, Detroit and New Orleans.
These three metro areas combined have approximately 26 million people and account for 56% of the US cases and 61% of the deaths.
Word document: The attached word document explains what the target levels.
Have a wonderful day!