Good Morning:
Yesterday Monday April 6, 2020 was a One green arrow day, but the general directions of the data shows improving trends. The day before was a Five green arrow day.
In general, there is a latency between events, when their recorded and then again when it is reported. There aren’t really any standards, processes and manpower to ensure all gets processed in a timely and organized manner.
There may be over 150,000 locations in the US that are involved in the data collection and reporting processes. That’s why trends (eventually it gets processed) are more important than single day counts.
Perhaps the most encouraging news is that our largest “hot spot” greater NCY metro new case growth dropped to 7.5%, lower than the overall US rate of 9% yesterday.
The growth rate for the US increased to 9.0% compared to 8.2% on Sunday. Yesterday we mentioned the “Sunday effect” meaning maybe some data and patent categorizing was deferred to the beginning of the workweek.
The new case rate has been in single digits for the previous two days a significant drop from the upper 20 to 30 percent growth rates just a couple of weeks ago. The trend over the last two weeks is definitely a precipitous drop in new cases.
We investigated quite a bit yesterday as to the reliability of the recovery data. What we learned is that there really isn’t a standard process to gather the data, a uniform definition of what recovery means and little manpower to track recoveries.
There are two basic definitions of recovery from the CDC. One is two negative tests 24 hours apart and a self-test of three days in a row of normal temperature (without using drugs) and feeling better. Most likely all those that fit the latter category don’t call in to their doctor to let them know, and if they do, it isn’t recorded in a data base.
Deaths were up on Monday, but less than both Friday and Saturday’s levels.
Have a wonderful day.