Sunday was a SIX Green Arrow Day.

Would Color-Coding Work?

Good Morning,

Last week there was a drop in new cases. However, the lag between a positive test and the eventual recording is less predictable than in prior weeks because of the holidays. The last several weeks show ups and downs (see the circled area of the graph below) that may not be easy to decipher if there is a trend.

What might be helpful to specifically identify those most vulnerable to severe reactions to the virus is to color-code risk based on prescription drug use. Those most at risk would know their status, encouraging greater participation in getting a vaccination. The situation would be scientifically based by analyzing the fatalities and historic prescription drug usage. Those in the highest risk category would be red, orange, etc. The new variants and the additional doses necessary would also help prioritize those with the greatest need.

Thus far, 200 million Americans have received their complete regimen of vaccinations, or 60%, with another 39 million in the queue to finish their requirement. Over the past several weeks, we averaged about 1.2 million added to the fully vaccinated category; last week, was 3.0 million completed their vaccinations.

Slowly we are approaching the Herd Immunity Factor (HIF), the combination of those that have acquired natural immunity or through vaccination. Currently, we are about at the 79th percentile of HIF. The 200 million vaccinated plus those that had the virus and recovered and those “officially recovered” 18 million, plus those counted as a new case but yet to be classified as closed, 44 million is the HIF. That equates to 79% of our population. We believe the HIF is at least 80%, probably closer to 85% because of the variants.