Sunday was a SIX Green Arrow Day.

More Tests Than People

Good Morning,

Sunday was a SIX Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

The number of tests performed in the United States has increased from less about 4 million per week in June to about 15 million in the previous two-week endings. That’s almost four times as many.

As of yesterday, the US has performed over 226 million tests. That compared to the total US population of 331 million is just about 70%. By the end of January 2021, based on a 15 million/week rate will mean there would be more tests executed than our entire population. In other words, more tests than people.

That certainly seems odd, but we know the answer, duplicate tests. According to the CDC, a person is not considered “officially” recovered until two negative tests are at least 24 hours apart. In certain situations, individuals might have many tests before two consecutive negatives or cleared to go results.

This creates two critical biases. First, it inflates the number of cases because every positive test result counts as a new case even though it is the same patient. Second, it causes the rate of infections to be overstated. A person testing positive one day and then again positive for the next five days and then negative for the following two days would count as six new cases at an infection rate of 75% (six positive tests plus two negative tests = eight tests).

It seems to us that the data ought to have a filter to eliminate this bias. Adding a filter to the data would not only be important today for policymakers but prosperity as well. Yes, we need to defeat COVID 19, but perhaps as important, we need to be better prepared for the next onslaught of such a potent virus.

Tests