Sunday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day.

The Data Confusion

Good Morning,

Sunday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars for the day.

The number of tests performed in the United States has increased from less about 4 million per week in June to over 15 million in the recent week ending. That’s almost four times as many.

Similarly, the number of positive tests has increased just about proportionately (see the table below). We bring this up because comparing case numbers today versus only a few months ago doesn’t have the context nor testing criteria as before.

Several factors are driving this phenomenon. First, it is a testament that our country now has the capacity and capability to perform virtually an unlimited number of tests. Second, the requirement for being tested has changed. In the early month’s tests were rationed based on availability and severity of symptoms. The CDC has suggested that the actual number of infected patients might be ten times higher than recorded. Third, the number of repeat tests appears to have increased by similar levels.

Repeat tests are used to determine when the virus has waned and the patient is no longer contagious. Those repeat tests are accounted for as a “new” case. We see in the news about athletes, politicians, healthcare professionals, and others having multiple tests to be cleared to return from isolation or being quarantined.

We aren’t yet able to measure the impact of repeat tests on daily and monthly statistics. Still, as tests become more manageable and less expensive, we believe it is significant enough to distort today’s numbers compared to a few months ago.

We know that there are undoubtedly many more tests being performed, and perhaps now we are getting the real infection rate. Ironically, we know more now, yet what we don’t know is if the testing was available then, as in today, what yesterday’s actual cases might have been.

Tests