Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day.

Case Rate Continues to Fall / More Tests Than People

Good Morning,

Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

For the week ending February 14, 2021, the new cases of the virus have plummeted 63% since about a month ago, the week ending January 10, 2021. There were 1.74 million cases compared to 0.64 million patients for the later date.

Last week we crossed another milestone. The US has now administered more tests (335 million) than people (332 million). We are currently performing about 13 million tests per week compared to less than 4 million in the early months. At least in the US, anyone that wants a test has access.

The number of vaccinations continues to increase as the cumulative total crossed 52 million. If we eliminate the 11 million vaccinations completed as of January 14, 2021, to account for those that required a second dose, that leaves 41 million “safe” citizens. That number, combined with our estimated “recovered” 132 million (see September 3rd newsletter), increases the “Herd Immunity Factor to 173 million, just over 50% of the US population.

Vaccinations + cases (reported & projected) = Herd Immunity Factor

We are entering a much safer stage and perhaps headed to Herd Immunity levels. The availability of tests, the continued vaccination effort, and those that have recovered should be encouraging. We calculated that there are now less than 1 million current virus carriers or our term “Open Net Cases.”

Tests

The number of tests performed over the last two weeks is averaging about 13 million. Multiple times more than in the early months of COVID 19.