Yesterday was a SEVEN Arrow Day.

How Close Are We to Herd Immunity (Protection)?

Good Morning,

Sunday was a SEVEN Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

How close are we toward Herd Immunity or Protection, perhaps closer than many think?

We are going to make a distinction for clarity. Our tern Herd Immunity Factor is those that either has had the virus and those that received a vaccination in each immunity is achieved. There may be some statistical anomalies, but we are talking about 320 million citizens to set those aside for discussion purposes. The formula we are using is as follows:

Vaccinations + cases (reported & projected) = Herd Immunity Factor

Our World in Data tracks vaccinations by country, and as of January 31, 2021, the US has administered 31.12 million. Granted, second does are required (within 20 to 28 days) but, we are so early in the process that we are assuming all of these were single does. The US is now performing about 4 million per week or about 570,000 per day (see below graph). By the end of May, another 68.6 million vaccinated will bring the total to almost 100 million people.

Vaccinated people plus those that have had COVID 19 contribute to the Herd Immunity Factor. We calculated (see the table below) there are perhaps as many as 131 million of those that have had the virus. According to the CDC, as many as ten times as many as the number of cases actually existed. This would have been especially true when tests were scarce. We are using the end of August’s cumulative cases to extend the cases to potential ones. As tests have become more available, that initial CDC multiplier is most likely wrong. From September through October, we cut that number in half. From November through January, we believe anyone that wanted a test got one with relative ease. This makes the reported plus probably cases at 131.7 million.

The Herd Immunity Factor at the end of maybe 200.3 million or 63% of the US population. Is that enough to create Herd Protection? Maybe, maybe not, but we would certainly feel safer knowing that there are considerably fewer germ carriers.

On a side note, we were actually quite impressed with the distribution of the vaccinations. More than 28 million doses were delivered and administered in January. Just a few months ago, many were doubting that a vaccine would exist. The logistics, planning, and execution to make that happen is quite a feat!