Sunday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day.

Herd Immunity Around the Corner?

Sunday was a SEVEN Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

A few weeks ago, we mentioned that herd immunity could happen as soon as May of this year. We based our supposition on the growing number of vaccinated plus the cumulative number of those that have recovered from the virus. We coined the term “Herd Immunity Factor,” as defined below.

Vaccinations + cases (reported & projected) = Herd Immunity Factor

Two world authorities have now publicly confirmed that herd immunity could happen as soon as April. Dr. Marty Makary at Johns Hopkins and Dr. Scott Gottlieg, (a former FDA commissioner) have been interviewed (see below) and shared their more optimistic views.

By the past Sunday, in the US, more than 63 million vaccinations were administered. That plus our calculation of recovered patients (reported & projected, 131 million) puts the Herd Immunity Factor to about 190 million. The question that experts can’t answer is, at what percentage does herd immunity exists? For some, that might be 60% of our population, and for others, it might be higher, but we are getting to that point.

Dr. Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins University health policy expert and surgeon, argues in an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal and in an interview Friday. (February 19, 2021)

“There is a 77% reduction in daily cases over the last six weeks,” said Makary. “You, as a scientist, have to ask why. We cannot explain that by vaccinated immunity. We can’t explain it by a sudden change in behavior. It is natural immunity and it’s now over 50% of the population.”

He also wrote that he thinks the United States is racing toward an “extremely low level of infection,” and at the “current trajectory, I expect COVID will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”

Dr. Scott Gottlieb (former Food and Drug Administration commissioner) told CNBC on Monday he believes coronavirus cases in the U.S. will continue to decline into the spring and summer, allowing Americans to ease up on some pandemic precautions for the time being.

Gottlieb said he does not “necessarily agree” with some of the numbers Makary used to undergird his argument but added, “I think the sentiment is right.”