Sunday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day.

Covid 19: Still Not Going Away?

Good Morning,

Sunday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

We have now administered over 335 million doses as of July 5, 2021, 5 million more than the prior week in the USA. Of which 159 million have completed their entire regimen. The vaccine distribution continues to expand (more outlets), and all restrictions of access, such as age, have been lifted. About 48% of our citizens have completed their respective dose regimens.

There are 25 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their regimen. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 55%. The combination of the 159million, plus the recorded (17 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (74 million) recovers make our Herd Immunity Factor (HIF) 251 million or 76% of our population. Said a bit different, roughly 85 million citizens don’t have either vaccination or self-created immunity (those that had the virus), and almost 100,000 currently are virus carriers.

Clearly, the pace of those getting vaccinated has slowed compared to the early days, even though access and availability have improved. It appears many are either reluctant or unwilling to get the shot(s). This trend means statistically that the rapid decline of new cases has flattened and might stay at the current levels for a while.

The chart below shows a sharp decline in new cases, over 80%, since mid-April. Notice that over the last couple of weeks, the rate of the decrease in new cases has slowed. Closely mirroring the slower pace at which vaccinations are being administered compared to earlier periods.

Once the HIF crosses the 80% threshold, we will summarize our views and recommendations. We will offer insights into how Covid 19 was handled, what was handled well and what we could have done better.