Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day.

Covid 19: Herd Immunity Achieved?

Good Morning,

Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

In the USA, we have now administered over 330 million doses as of July 5, 2021, about the same as our population. Of which 157 million have completed their entire regimen. The vaccine distribution continues to expand (more outlets), and all restrictions of access, such as age, have been lifted. More than 47% of our citizens have now completed their respective dose regimens.

There are 25.1 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their regimen. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 54%. The combination of the 157 million, plus the recorded (18 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (74 million) recovers make our Herd Immunity Factor (HIF) 245 million or 75% of our population. Said a bit different, 87 million citizens don’t have either vaccination or self-created immunity (those that had the virus), and almost 90,000 currently are virus carriers.

The CDC has stated that the 70% to 80% threshold is needed for Herd Immunity to take full effect. We are now at the 75% HIF level, a similar mark previously reached in Israel when their new case rates plummeted. We see that pattern directly in the USA.

The chart below shows a sharp decline in new cases, over 80%, since mid-April. Notice that over the last couple of weeks, the rate of the decrease in new cases has slowed. Closely mirroring the slower pace at which vaccinations are being administered compared to earlier periods.

Once the HIF crosses the 80% threshold, we will summarize our views and recommendations. We will offer insights into how Covid 19 was handled, what was handled well and what we could have done better.