Yesterday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day. |
Where You Live Matters
Good Morning,
Yesterday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day. There were over 23,000 new infections reported. That’s not as large as a couple of weeks ago (May 29th – 25,069). Viruses, and this one, in particular, moves at its own accord. There will be days in which it appears to have waned and others in which there is an upward tick of new cases.
What we do know is where you live matters. We know that 42% of COVID 19 fatalities have occurred in Nursing Homes and Skilled Nursing Facilities. A bit more than half of the deaths happened in a specific geography, the Boston, NYC, and Philadelphia metroplex. That leaves about 32,000 over the rest of our 300 million population. In short, there are risky places. However, there are also low to very low risks areas.
We are highlighting Ohio again because the information to analyze is credible and readily available courtesy of the Ohio Department of Health. The below charts show the accumulated cases and then the essential numbers, germ carriers, or in our words, “Open Net Cases (ONC).” Our persistent point is that assuming everyone is at a universal risk may hinder our efforts to better cope with COVID.
The below graphs show the number of ONC’s using a range of days since a patient has been recorded with the illness. Generally, it takes fourteen days until the virus passes unless there are complications. We used 18, 16 and 14 days to offset some of the variability.
Ohio:
Ohio, with a population of 11.7 million, has between 2,750 & 994 germ carriers or ONC’s. These smaller numbers would be more natural to focus attention and resources rather than the entire state population. It would seem a more precise approach. By the way, the state knows exactly who these people are because of a positive COVID 19 test.
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland):
Cuyahoga, with a population of 1.25 million, has between 502 and 242 germ carriers. Keeping track of less than 500 is more direct and effective than certain broad-brush restrictions.
Lake County, Ohio:
Lake County’s population is just about 230,000 and probably has less than 20 cases to monitor, and that number could be as low 9.
