June 15, 2020

Yesterday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day.

Weekly Summary for Week Ended June 14, 2020

Good Morning,

Yesterday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day. The number of “recorded recoveries” was less than the previous day. We always hold some skepticism in this category because it does not include unrecorded or self-diagnosed recoveries and seems to be more impacted by the administrative processes, as evidenced by the day-to-day fluctuations. Of course, that would also affect its related percentage. 

We may have seen the limits of the impact of universal risk precautions, in particular, state-wide restrictions. It might be more useful to recognize that the virus ought to more viewed as a weather pattern than one that stops at a border between one state versus another. Think of rain or snowstorm that hovers over greater NYC and NJ. If you are in that area or go into it, you will get wet. We hope that our policymakers recognize that more precise and laser-focused strategies would be better suited to cope with COVID.  

This week we explore that thought.  

New Case Rate:

New cases were just 1,200 more than the prior week, which on a relative scale is about flat. In the past two weeks, we’ve been averaging about 700,000 more tests than the weeks before. The rate of positive tests remains below 5%, and of course, that means 95+% of negative tests.

Death Rates:

Fatalities are trending favorably as there were 817 fewer. This category often garners daily attention, and its consistent improvement should give the public optimism for the summer.

Negative Test Rates:

The percentage of positive tests was 4.4% last week. An essential factor is that testing for COVID is now standard protocol for all elective medical procedures. It wasn’t that long ago that such procedures were delayed until the growth of the virus slowed. This has the effect of adding new cases that would otherwise not be recorded because these patients were probably asymptomatic.