Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day.

Herd Immunity Achieved?

Good Morning,

Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

In the USA, we have now administered over 309 million doses as of April 13, 2021. Of which 144 million have completed their entire regimen. The vaccine distribution continues to expand (more outlets), and all restrictions of access, such as age, have been lifted. About 43% of our citizens have completed their respective dose regimens.

There are 29.9 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their regimen. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 53%. As new cases fall, the conundrum is that people might lose their desire to get one for themselves. It might be a challenge to have vaccinations reach a 70% level, ever.

The combination of the 144 million, plus the recorded (19 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (74 million) recovers make our Herd Immunity Factor (HIF) 237 million or 71% of our population. Said a bit different, only 95 million citizens don’t have either vaccination or self-created immunity (those that had the virus), and only 110,000 currently are virus carriers.

The CDC has stated that the 70% to 80% threshold is needed for Herd Immunity to take full effect. We are now at the 71% HIF level, a similar mark previously reached in Israel when their new case rates plummeted. We see that pattern directly in the USA.

The chart below shows an 82% drop in new cases since the week of April 18th. We expect this favorable trend to continue.

On a side note, we were pretty impressed with our country’s ability to administer over 300 million vaccinations. That said, we noticed that China had administered 893 million doses, almost three times that of the US. Our staff was rather shocked at how quickly China not only has caught up to the US but has surpassed it by a factor of three.