Yesterday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day.
Germ Carriers
Good Morning,
Yesterday was a FIVE Green arrow day as several of the categories changed ever so slightly. We measure the slope of the COVID curves that have flattened, and tiny fluctuations can change an arrow from green to red or red to green.
Our new schedule has helped us gain some perspective, as those days, we relied on the general news sources for information. There is a focus on accumulated numbers, such as the ever-growing total of COVID 19 cases. It’s a significant number of over 1.8 million. However, we believe the more critical number is the active germ carriers or in our vernacular, “Open Net Cases (ONC).” We calculate that number by starting with total cases and subtract those resolved; the person has either recovered or passed. Since many of the recoveries are self-diagnosed (based on CDC guidelines), we estimate that number with our formulas.
In the United States, there are just about 300,000 germ carriers or ONC’s.
To better illustrate how this could be a factor with policymakers, we are using a state and two counties to show the total case number may be a distraction as opposed to how many germ carriers there really are. We are using Ohio, Cuyahoga and Lake Counties for analytical purposes. We modified our ONC calculation to eliminate those that have self-recovered by using more than 16, 14, and 12 days. Generally, two weeks is considered a likely duration of the virus. We used three different sets of days, which probably is conservative because most individuals are asymptomatic for the first several days.
Below are the graphs for your reference; the information was provided by Ohio’s Department of Health.
Ohio:
Ohio, with a population of 11.7 million, has between 3,333 and 1,189 ONC’s. These smaller numbers would be more natural to focus attention and resources rather than the entire state population. It would seem a more precise approach. By the way, the state knows exactly who these people are because of a positive COVID 19 test.
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland):
Cuyahoga, with a population of 1.25 million, has between 685 and 368 germ carriers. Keeping track of less than 700 or 400 is more direct and effective than certain broad-brush restrictions.
Lake County, Ohio:
Lake County’s population is less than 250,000 and probably has less than 300 cases to monitor, and that number could be as low as 17.
