Yesterday was the second TEN Green arrow day in the last couple of weeks, that’s a good indicator of the status of COVID 19. There were several records achieved as well; New cases fell to 1.095%, the positive test rate dropped to 4.2%, our “hot spot” greater NYC’s rate slipped to 0.29% and for the first time since April 3rd, “Open Net Cases (ONC)” dipped below 300,000. 

 

There is some recognition about tracking recoveries. Illinois, for the first time, included this statistic on its dashboard. After all, what is essential at the moment is how many germ carriers or ONC’s there are.

 

Currently, as we have noted in these Newsletters, the United States doesn’t track open cases, those that have yet to recover from COVID-19. Self-diagnosed recoveries are not counted, even though the CDC has a precise definition of what that means. We believe that knowing who is contagious is essential in making policy, restrictions, and related decisions. Other countries seem to understand this concept. 

 

We pick three countries, the United States, Italy, and Germany of examples of how diligent countries are in specifying how many active cases there are. Notice in the graph the US still has 60% listed as open whereas Italy and Germany have far less. Also, of importance, our “Net Open Cases” is graphed (US ONC) and seems to fit comfortably between the other two countries adding to its integrity.

 

The US has almost 2 million recorded cases of COVID 19 and had about 1.5 million three weeks ago. By all measures, three week old cases have been resolved. Yet the US still reports having 1.1 million active or open cases. The graph shows the diligence of other countries in tracking open cases or germ carriers. The “US ONC” includes our calculation of those unrecorded recoveries and the lower active cases much in line with the others.