Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day.

Is Herd Immunity Beginning to Take Effect?

Good Morning,

Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

The numbers are starting to show how Herd Immunity begins to take effect. For example, last week, there were only 417,000 new cases, less than 25% of the levels we experienced in January of this year. Secondly, the number of tests is about half for the same period, while the rate of those testing positive is also half. That means fewer people feel sick or need to take a test.

Vaccinations are up sharply since the beginning of the year and as important is that in the US, we now have 31 million patients that have now completed their regimen and had a second shot. The combination of completed vaccinations and those with the virus would be considered safe, meaning they don’t carry this germ. We labeled that the Herd Immunity Factor. See the chart below.

Vaccinations + cases (reported & projected) = Herd Immunity Factor (HIF)

According to the formula, we now have 135 million, about 40% of our population, that would be considered safe. Our World Data source now tracks patients who have completed regimens of vaccinations. We are switching to that statistic since it is more precise than our imputed calculation shown last week.

Using last week’s complete vaccination level of 9 million as a proxy from now on, we will add 36 million in four weeks. That would equate to more than half of our population, and in four weeks after that, add another 36 million totaling about two-thirds HIF.