May 8, 2020

Yesterday was a SIX Green Arrow Day.

Understanding Green Arrow Scoring

Good Morning:

We use green arrows for favorable trends and red ones to score each unfavorable result. For example, a downward pointing green arrow would be used for a lower rate of new cases, whereas an upward red arrow reflects an increased percentage. Using this scoring system, we can convey a clear snapshot of the previous day’s activity.

Of course, any single day’s tallies are that, a picture in time. More important are the general trends for each category, as with New Case percentage increases or decreases. Yesterday New Case increased to 2.3% from 2.0% earning a red arrow. However, the pervasive trend is quite encouraging with 12 out of 13 days of sub 3% growth and the last four bouncing between 2.0% and 2.3%, the lowest percentages recorded.

Below are the Green Arrows for May 7th compared to the day before.

1. New Cases: the number increased by 4,472.

2. New Case percentage: the change was up to 2.3% from 2.0%.

3. Deaths: decreased by 391

4. Recoveries (recorded): increased by 5,260.

5. Rate of Recoveries: increased faster than new cases.

6. Tests: second highest daily test count with 325,217, decline in percentage of positive tests.

7. Test rate: the cumulative positive test percentage positive, continues to fall.

8. Boston/NYC Corridor: new case rate increased to 1.3%.

9. Theoretical recoveries: outpaced the New Case growth rate

10. Open Net Cases: decreased by 141, to 454,838

This grading system enables readers to, at a glance, follow the progress or lack thereof in dealing with COVID 19. And yes, it’s okay to see what kind of arrow day it is, without reading all of the commentaries. Several readers look for the number of green arrows in the morning and, later that day or week, read the analysis.

PS: Several readers have told me they forward the newsletter to family and friends. Please send them directly to us, and we would be happy to add them to our distribution. Thank you.

Have a wonderful day.

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