Sunday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day.

Wow…Huge Increase in Testing

Good Morning,

Yesterday was a FIVE Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars for the day.

The number of tests performed in the United States has increased from less about 4 million per week in June to over 12 million in the recent week ending. Furthermore, it has more than doubled since August (see graph below).

Several factors are driving this phenomenon. First, it is a testament that our country now has the capacity and capability to perform virtually an unlimited number of tests. Second, the requirement for being tested has changed. In the early month’s tests were rationed based on availability and severity of symptoms. The CDC has suggested that historically the actual number of infected patients might have been ten times higher than recorded. Third, the number of repeat tests appears to have increased by similar levels.

Repeat tests are used to determine when the virus has waned, and the patient is no longer contagious. Those repeat tests are accounted for as a “new” case. We see in the news about athletes, politicians, healthcare professionals, and others having multiple tests to be cleared to return from isolation or being quarantined.

We aren’t yet able to measure the impact of repeat tests on daily and monthly statistics, however it does skew the data.

We know that there are undoubtedly many more tests being performed, and perhaps now we are getting the real infection rate. Ironically, we know more now, yet what we don’t know is if the testing was available then, as in today, what yesterday’s actual cases might have been.

We also know that the fatality rate is continually getting better. For instance, the fatality rate for the past 31 days is 16% lower than in August.

Tests