Yesterday was a SIX Green Arrow Day.

“Open Net Cases (ONC)” or Virus Carriers Florida & Ohio

Good Morning,

Yesterday was a SIX Green Arrow day; below are the particulars for the day.

New cases in both states have dropped precipitously to the point that Florida and Ohio have very few “Open Net Cases” or virus carriers, 0.045%, and 0.003%. The graphs below show how each state has gained on slowing their infection rates.

We use the term ONC to quantify how many people are capable of transmitting COVID 19 to others. Accumulated numbers may get more attention, but it is far more noteworthy to know how many people nearby have the virus. Below is the calculation we use to calculate ONC:

We calculated ONC based on the following formula (see graphs below):

1. Accumulated cases to date
2. Less: fatalities
3. Less: those requiring intensive care (if known)
4. Less: the accumulated cases for 16, 14, 12, and 10 days prior
5. Equals: Open Net Cases or virus carriers

We assume as many health care organizations do that the virus lasts about 14 days without complications. Generally, people begin to feel symptoms a couple of days after being infected and seek a test. The tests can take three days or more to be processed. Thus, our range of 16 to 10 days.

Yesterday, we showed a 40% drop in new cases nationally from the week ending July 19 to September 27, 2020. These two individual states statistics support our supposition that the second wave has dissipated.

There may be as few as 400 ONC’s in Ohio and 10,000 in Florida, and there are healthcare records that accurately identify these patients. Focusing on those that are active virus carriers would accelerate our progress coping with COVID 19. Keep in mind that for most people, the virus lasts about 14 days.

Florida:


Florida with a population of 21.5 million may have as little as 9,609 ONC’s or 0.045%.

Information from Worldometer.