Sunday was a SIX Green Arrow Day.

Wow…Huge Increase in Testing

Good Morning,

Yesterday was a SIX Green Arrow Day. Below are the particulars for the day.

Last week there were more tests performed than any other week on record, and the trend appears to be slightly accelerating (see graph below). For example, 11.8 million completed this past week compared to 5.8 million for the week ended September 20th, more than doubled.

We don’t have specifics about why there was a significant jump in testing but do have some anecdotal evidence. At least one large state retroactively added to their testing total and number of cases by counting repeat tests. A repeat test happens when a person is tested positive and repeatedly tested until negative tests show the patient has recovered. In other words, that patient is counted as a “new” case each time the test yields a positive result.

When there is a change in our testing protocols, a different bias is introduced and is difficult to assess. Today because we are testing more as a precautionary measure for healthcare workers, athletes, children in school, etc., we recognize more of those asymptomatic.

Do we know if there are more cases today than yesterday? Most likely, we do not, nor any other source. The apparent unlimited capacity to perform tests, the vast increase in testing, and the continual testing until a negative result is achieved add variables that make absolute conclusions about more or fewer cases suspect.

Tests