Sunday was a SEVEN Green Arrow Day.

Vaccination Efficacy

Good Morning,

We have now administered over 346 million doses as of August 1, 2021, 5 million more from the previous week. Of which 165 million have completed their entire regimen, an increase of 1.7 million compared to the prior week. It doesn’t appear that the recent flux of new cases is driving more to get their vaccinations. Almost 50% of our citizens have completed their respective dose regimens. We are trending to a 1% uptick per week of those fully vaccinated.

There are 27 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their regimen. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 58%. The combination of the 165 million, plus the recorded (17 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (37 million minus duplicates) recovers make our Herd Immunity Factor (HIF) 217 million or 66% of our population.

The trend for new cases has surged over the past three weeks. Notice in the graph below (green arrow) that the case rate dropped by more than 80%, which coincides with a jump in vaccinations. In the next several weeks (orange arrow), the new case and vaccination rates flattened. In the last several weeks (red arrow), we see the surge of new cases and a significant slowdown of newly vaccinated.

One of the most efficacious vaccinations of all time is for measles. It is reported to last a lifetime at a 96% effective rate. There are no vaccinations that are 100% reliable. If we use the measles vaccination as a proxy, that means of the 165 million Americans fully vaccinated, 6.6 million (4% of 165 million) could contract Covid 19. Only when there is a high enough percentage of vaccinated people plus those that developed the immunity naturally that a virus can be effectively eradicated, such as the case with Smallpox. We aren’t there yet.