Sunday was a SEVEN Green Arrow Day.

The Holidays / Herd Immunity

Good Morning,

Yesterday was a SEVEN Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars for Sunday.

Last week appeared to provide relief as almost all of our statistics shows positive trends. However, we know that the data processing lag is nearly as significant, which tends to lengthen during holidays as the number of cases. The holiday season’s impact can be seen as last week we tested only 12.5 million people compared before the holiday season of 15.2 million.

The below chart shows how much testing has increased versus the earlier months of COVID 19, a threefold increase. More tests, of course, will generate more cases because almost anybody that wants a test today gets one, and many are required to have one as part of their job. Whereas in the past, due to testing capability and capacity shortfalls, tests were rationed, and self and unreported diagnoses were the norms.

These factors lead us to an important question; when do we achieve “herd immunity?” And a step in answering that question is what percentage of people either vaccinated or have recovered from the virus constitutes a safe environment? As of now (week ending 12/28/20), the US has vaccinated 2.13 million, about 45% of the world’s total (according to Our World Data website).

The combination of the vaccinated plus those “officially recovered” is about 22 million. That said, we know according to the CDC, there may have been ten times more cases than reported due to the scarcity of tests. At the end of September, there were 7.5 million reported cases; if that number was in line with the CDC’s findings, there are now 75 million recoveries. That plus 15 million patients since then puts recoveries to 90 million, about 27% of our population. We used September’s data because, after that, the testing capability and capacity improved significantly.

Last week the US vaccinated 1.5 million people, assuming that could ramp up to 3.0 million. There are other pharmaceutical companies gaining approval, and our country has a better capacity to deliver them. That three million-plus the 1.3 million new cases per week equals 4.3 million “safe” people. In 20 weeks, another 86 million would become safe. Combined with the to-date recovers equals about 176 million (86 + 90) or just over 50% of our population.

With the most at risk getting vaccinated first, we should see the impact of COVID, perhaps more quickly than prophesied, wane. We realize these calculations are subject to some head-scratching, but no one else is trying to figure this out as far as we know.

Tests