Sunday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day.

Covid 19: Herd Immunity Achieved?

Good Morning,

Sunday was an EIGHT Green Arrow Day; below are the particulars.

In the USA, we have now administered over 325 million doses as of June 27, 2021, increasing over 7 million from the prior week. Of which 153 million have completed their entire regimen. The vaccine distribution continues to expand (more outlets), and all restrictions of access, such as age, have been lifted. About 46% of our citizens have completed their respective dose regimens.

There are 26.2 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their regimen. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 54%. As new cases fall, the conundrum is that people might lose their desire to get one for themselves. The data is showing about a 1% increase per week in those that have completed their vaccinations. Based on that, it will take around sixteen more weeks to reach the 70% level.

The combination of the 153 million, plus the recorded (18 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (74 million) recovers make our Herd Immunity Factor (HIF) 245 million or 74% of our population. Said a bit different, 87 million citizens don’t have either vaccination or self-created immunity (those that had the virus), and only 90,000 currently are virus carriers.

The CDC has stated that the 70% to 80% threshold is needed for Herd Immunity to take full effect. We are now at the 74% HIF level; a similar mark previously reached in Israel when their new case rates plummeted. We see that pattern directly in the USA.

The chart below shows an 84% drop in new cases since the week of April 18th. The chart also displays a flattening of the new case curve over the last couple of weeks. We expect the decline in new cases to continue.

Over the next, several weeks will summarize our views and recommendations. We will offer insights into how Covid 19 was handled, what was handled well and what we could have done better.