Yesterday was a SEVEN Green Arrow day.
Good Morning:
All categories improved yesterday with the exception of new cases and its respective growth rate. Looking across to the “Tests” column would show a probable explanation, there were over 36% more tests performed than the prior day. While we have commented that there is a lag between taking a test and the results, that lag seems to have been shorted as our healthcare system is getting better at the event / reporting process.
An important observation is that the tests showing positives were lower yesterday than the day before. Furthermore, this trend is also trending in the right direction. Just 10 days ago the positive tests were in the high teens and has dropped to the low double digits. We still believe that for the most part those getting tested “feel” sick or believe they have the symptoms. Thus, skewing these results higher because many that have the virus don’t feel the symptoms or they are very mild and don’t get tested.
We would like to see some comprehensive random sampling to get a better handle on the actual cases and more importantly what the true denominator might be.
NYC, new growth rate dropped to 1.3% and has had five consecutive days of sub 2% growth. What we can glean from this is that drop in the growth of new cases will likely be a proxy for the rest of the country. Remember greater NYC was the initial hot spot and trends there should be seen elsewhere.
We now have crossed a threshold, 60% of all COVID 19 cases are resolved based on our “Theoretical Recoveries” (see table). By resolved we mean all confirmed cases less those that have recovered or passed.
Have a wonderful day.