Sunday was a SIX Green Arrow Day.

“They’re Back!”

Good Morning,

“They’re Back” is, of course, the movie quote from Poltergeist. For this letter, we are referring to the unfortunate uptick in new cases. The previous spike in cases reached its zenith in late August with over 1 million per week. Since then, we’ve experienced a precipitous decrease in cases, and a few weeks ago, a leveling from there.

Our view has been consistent. The data should be listed in more specific categories than currently has been reported. What we don’t know is the composition of this uptick. How many of them are of Covid 19, the variant, or are duplicate tests? For example, think of NFL players, coaches, and staff recently diagnosed with the virus and thus suspended from any activity. The only way for them to be “reinstated” is to have two negative tests in a row at least one day apart. No doubt, players are being tested every day until they pass the negative test criteria. Each day a player tests positive, it counts as a new case.

Thus far in November, 195 million Americans have received their complete regimen of vaccinations, or 59%, with another 36 million in the queue to finish their requirement. Over the past several weeks, we are averaging about 1.2 million added to the fully vaccinated category; last week, it was just over 1 million. Interesting to note is that the queue seems to keep increasing, yet the net fully vaccinated remains relatively constant. We suspect that means a growing number of individuals are stopping after one shot and not wanting to complete their fully vaccinated requirement. Go figure.

Slowly we are approaching the Herd Immunity Factor (HIF), the combination of those that have acquired natural immunity or through vaccination. Currently, we are about at the 77th percentile of HIF. The 195 million vaccinated plus those that had the virus and recovered and those “officially recovered” 19 million, plus those counted as a new case but yet to be considered closed, 43 million is the HIF. That equates to 77% of our population. We believe the HIF is at least 80%. That means we will probably not see another drop in case levels until HIF is reached.

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family!