Sunday was a NINE Green Arrow Day.
Good News…Favorable Trends Continue
Good Morning,
At the end of August, there were over 1 million new cases per week. Last week the number fell just a bit more than 400,000. We’ve had nine weeks of this favorable trend. We expect this was caused by getting closer to the magic Herd Immunity Factor (HIF), which is the combination of vaccinated individuals and those who naturally acquired immunity.
We have now administered almost 414 million doses as of last week. Of which 191 million have completed their entire regimen, an increase of less than one million compared to the prior week. About over 57% of our citizens have completed their respective dose regimens. The US is averaging a one-half-of-one-percent increase in fully vaccinated individuals per week. Those that have not yet participated in the vaccination program aren’t gaining motivation to accelerate this pace. This past week was about half of the previous week.
There are 30 million citizens that require a second shot to complete their requirement. Once theirs are complete, that would increase those vaccinated to 67%. The combination of the 191 million-plus the recorded (19 million net, less the duplicates) and unrecorded (42 million less the double-counting) recoveries make our HIF 251 million or 75% of our population. Our view is that once we cross the 80% threshold of those with natural and vaccinated immunity, we will see the long-awaited light at the end of the tunnel.
We believe the favorable new case trend will continue for three reasons. First, there are fewer Open Net Cases, about 450,000 people that are germ carriers. Second, as more and more citizens gain immunity (natural or through vaccinations), there are fewer transmissions. The vaccinations aren’t 100% effective, even the measles is only about 95% effective, but they protect the vast majority that finished their regimen. Lastly, we are approaching the long-sought object, Herd Immunity; we believe that to be 80%.
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